Source: Stuart Eizenstat. President Carter - The White House Years (2018)
Except for the fall of the Soviet Union, the Iranian Revolution in 1979 was the most significant geopolitical event after World War II. Almost overnight Iran went from a key US ally in the Middle East to a sworn enemy. For Westerners, it is important to remember that Iran’s Persian history and culture are totally different from Arab history and culture. When Persia abandoned Zoroastrianism for Islam, the choice was the Shia sect by the powers-that-be. The Shia (Shiite) sect was a fierce antagonist to secular authority and foreign influences, whether Christian or Sunni Muslims.
British colonialism in Iran meant that by 1925 a ruling family, the Pahlavi Dynasty, had been endorsed by the Crown. The Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, took the Peacock Throne under the 1906 constitution. The Shah modernized Iran and repressed powerful religious leaders/groups. In 1941, the son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (age 21) took the throne as the
Shah of Iran, and for the next decade, Iran was at least nominally a constitutional monarchy in the image of Great Britain.
British colonialism in Iran meant that by 1925 a ruling family, the Pahlavi Dynasty, had been endorsed by the Crown. The Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, took the Peacock Throne under the 1906 constitution. The Shah modernized Iran and repressed powerful religious leaders/groups. In 1941, the son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (age 21) took the throne as the
Shah of Iran, and for the next decade, Iran was at least nominally a constitutional monarchy in the image of Great Britain.
Since the Pahlavi Dynasty had been installed by a foreign power, the legitimacy of the ruling family was questioned by many Iranians. The Shah tried to improve his power base by negotiating better terms for Iranian oil with the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, with the support of the US who did not want the USSR to become a major player in the region. Britain offered Iran a 50 - 50 split on the oil profits which was refused, and days later the Shah’s prime minister was assassinated after he refused to nationalize the oil company.
Mohammed Mossadegh then became prime minister, who from the beginning had been opposed to the Pahlavi Dynasty. Mossadegh became a serious threat not only to the Shah but also to the strategic interests of Britain and the US. Winston Churchill (back as British PM in 1951) and the Eisenhower administration launched a non-violent coup in 1953 that returned the Shah to power in Iran; the US role in bringing back the Shah was embedded in the fabric of Iran’s national consciousness. As early as 1953, the US had started to become the “Great Satan” to Iran’s Muslim clerics.
Mohammed Mossadegh then became prime minister, who from the beginning had been opposed to the Pahlavi Dynasty. Mossadegh became a serious threat not only to the Shah but also to the strategic interests of Britain and the US. Winston Churchill (back as British PM in 1951) and the Eisenhower administration launched a non-violent coup in 1953 that returned the Shah to power in Iran; the US role in bringing back the Shah was embedded in the fabric of Iran’s national consciousness. As early as 1953, the US had started to become the “Great Satan” to Iran’s Muslim clerics.
The Shah became increasingly autocratic, and loaded with money from Iran’s oil sales, he modernized Iran (including women’s rights) while at the same time using his secret police in a reign of terror to repress any opposition. By the mid-1970s, the Shah’s base of support in Iran was disappearing at a rapid rate. One opposing voice stood out from the rest that called for an Islamic Republic, the cleric Ruhollah Khomeini, who had great influence as a grand ayatollah. The disparate groups that were arrayed against the Shah rallied around Khomeini, and in 1964 the Shah had Khomeini arrested and sent into exile after the secret police eliminated key opposition leaders.
Khomeini was exiled in the Iraqi city of Najaf, a city holy to Shiites. Khomeini kept speaking out against the Shah’s corruption and ties to Israel and the US, and he further developed the idea of an Islamic State, which was revolutionary even by conservative Islamic standards. While Khomeini was in eile and “above” politics, like-minded clerics in Iran started to politically organize, which meant that there was a ready stable of disciples on hand if Khomeini returned.
When Carter was inaugurated on 20 January 1977, there wasn’t a blip on the US radar that indicated that the Shah of Iran was in trouble, but the warning signs were there to be read. As the Cold War intensified, the Shah became the darling of US Presidents due to the vast amounts of oil exported from Iran as well as Iran being a barrier against the USSR in the Middle East. President Carter inherited that relationship and situation concerning Iran from previous Presidents.
Khomeini was exiled in the Iraqi city of Najaf, a city holy to Shiites. Khomeini kept speaking out against the Shah’s corruption and ties to Israel and the US, and he further developed the idea of an Islamic State, which was revolutionary even by conservative Islamic standards. While Khomeini was in eile and “above” politics, like-minded clerics in Iran started to politically organize, which meant that there was a ready stable of disciples on hand if Khomeini returned.
When Carter was inaugurated on 20 January 1977, there wasn’t a blip on the US radar that indicated that the Shah of Iran was in trouble, but the warning signs were there to be read. As the Cold War intensified, the Shah became the darling of US Presidents due to the vast amounts of oil exported from Iran as well as Iran being a barrier against the USSR in the Middle East. President Carter inherited that relationship and situation concerning Iran from previous Presidents.
The Shah made a state visit to the US in November 1977, and the Shah was received with great fanfare, but there were demonstrations against the Shah in Lafayette Park across from the White House, even before the Shah arrived. The demonstrations turned into riots, where tear gas had to be used, and the wind blew the tear gas towards Carter and the Shah during their press conference, where everyone in attendance felt the effects. The events of that day foreshadowed trouble. Carter knew that the Shah was a crucial ally and that Iran supplied half of Israel’s oil, so it was only in private where Carter brought up to the Shah his concerns about human rights . . . the Shah resented the inference and interference.
Carter believed that the Shah was so isolated that he had no idea what was happening under his nose in his own nation, believing that the opposition to his rule was from very small and insignificant minority. By the Fall of 1978, Zbig had started to realize that he wasn’t getting all of what he needed to know from US intelligence regarding developments in Iran.
Carter believed that the Shah was so isolated that he had no idea what was happening under his nose in his own nation, believing that the opposition to his rule was from very small and insignificant minority. By the Fall of 1978, Zbig had started to realize that he wasn’t getting all of what he needed to know from US intelligence regarding developments in Iran.
At that point one could fill an ocean with what the US government didn’t know about what was going on in Iran, which resulted in one of the greatest intelligence failures in US History. Even the Director of the CIA at the time admitted later that the CIA had miserably failed President Carter. For decades, the Shah’s rule had been so absolute and stable that the CIA simply didn’t see the need for agents in Iran, which meant that the US government knew nothing about the internal politics in play or what was happening on the ground in Iran; after all, the Shah had his secret police for to deal with those things. The CIA’s assets in Iran were focused across the border with the USSR.
In short, the CIA and the US government simply believed the Shah when he said he had everything under control in Iran, but the Shah was indecisive, ill, vain, and isolated, and by the time all that became apparent to Carter, it was too late. The Shah’s failing health played a huge role in his downfall, since nobody in Iran, or even in his family, knew that he had cancer.
In short, the CIA and the US government simply believed the Shah when he said he had everything under control in Iran, but the Shah was indecisive, ill, vain, and isolated, and by the time all that became apparent to Carter, it was too late. The Shah’s failing health played a huge role in his downfall, since nobody in Iran, or even in his family, knew that he had cancer.