Source: A.J. Baime. Dewey Defeats Truman - The 1948 Election
and the Battle For America’s Soul (2020)
and the Battle For America’s Soul (2020)
At the start of Election Night in the Democratic National Committee HQ at the Biltmore Hotel in NYC, there was an empty ballroom. However, as additional results came the optimism grew, and soon radio and television networks set up their microphones and cameras, creating a beehive of activity in the jammed ballroom. Dewey was in his suite at the Roosevelt Hotel with his wife and their wealthy friends taking in the election results. While he had taken most of New England, Dewey was shocked when he found out he lost MA. Dewey had locked down PA, NY, and NJ, but OH was still a toss-up, which had been expected to go his way; Election Night for New York Governor Thomas Dewey was getting scary. Dewey told himself that East Coast results often favored the Democrats, and that when the Midwestern states (the “Farm Vote”) reported, the tide would turn in his favor. Very likely, in the back of Dewey’s mind he was second-guessing his entire campaign strategy, and almost certainly the fear of a humiliating loss was starting to manifest itself.
Truman awoke from his slumber at around midnight, and he turned on the radio and heard that he was ahead in the popular vote by 1.2 million. The President went back to sleep after he heard a commentator say that it was still early and that Truman was “undoubtedly beaten”. At 2:30 am, Truman’s phone rang, where a friend was calling him from campaign HQ in the Muehlebach Hotel in Kansas City to inform the President that he was in a good position, but that he absolutely had to win at least one of the following states: OH, OH, or CA. Truman thanked his friend and asked him not to call again so he could get more sleep. Truman’s friend asked how he could go back to sleep knowing he had to carry one of those three states, and the President responded, “Why, I’m going to carry all three”.
Truman awoke from his slumber at around midnight, and he turned on the radio and heard that he was ahead in the popular vote by 1.2 million. The President went back to sleep after he heard a commentator say that it was still early and that Truman was “undoubtedly beaten”. At 2:30 am, Truman’s phone rang, where a friend was calling him from campaign HQ in the Muehlebach Hotel in Kansas City to inform the President that he was in a good position, but that he absolutely had to win at least one of the following states: OH, OH, or CA. Truman thanked his friend and asked him not to call again so he could get more sleep. Truman’s friend asked how he could go back to sleep knowing he had to carry one of those three states, and the President responded, “Why, I’m going to carry all three”.
As the hours passed, Truman’s lead in the popular vote increased, but the tally in the Electoral College was too close to call. At Truman campaign HQ, telegrams were coming in droves, with reporters wanting to leave Dewey’s HQ at the Roosevelt Hotel to reserve a room at the Muehlebach. At the Biltmore Hotel in NYC, the crowd at the DNC HQ kept getting bigger, and at Dewey’s campaign HQ at the Roosevelt Hotel, it was getting more-and-more empty and silent. Truman had a slight lead in IL (28 Electoral Votes), but his lead was decreasing as the state’s “Farm Vote” was being tallied. Soon enough however, it appeared that Truman would win IL in a nailbiter, and that the Democrats would win the governor’s race (Adlai Stevenson) and the US Senate seat (in a landslide). In winning IL, Truman took the lead in the Electoral College tally.
At the Muehlebach Hotel, Truman’s senior campaign staffers heard on the radio the unmistakable voice of Drew Pearson, where the famous (and hostile to Truman) columnist and radio commentator conceded that Truman was going to win the Presidential Election of 1948. For Truman’s campaign, the focus was now on OH, where the final results were coming in, and when OH went Truman’s way, the election was decided. In the ballroom of the Roosevelt Hotel, where everything had been set up to celebrate Dewey’s victory, tears streamed down the faces of campaign officials, with the shock of the unthinkable finally registering. In his suite at the Roosevelt Hotel, Dewey told his wife and small group of friends, “What do you know? The Son-of-a-Bitch won”.
At the Muehlebach Hotel, Truman’s senior campaign staffers heard on the radio the unmistakable voice of Drew Pearson, where the famous (and hostile to Truman) columnist and radio commentator conceded that Truman was going to win the Presidential Election of 1948. For Truman’s campaign, the focus was now on OH, where the final results were coming in, and when OH went Truman’s way, the election was decided. In the ballroom of the Roosevelt Hotel, where everything had been set up to celebrate Dewey’s victory, tears streamed down the faces of campaign officials, with the shock of the unthinkable finally registering. In his suite at the Roosevelt Hotel, Dewey told his wife and small group of friends, “What do you know? The Son-of-a-Bitch won”.
Before his planned wake-up time, Truman was informed that he had won the election. The President was now up in every possible way, and after he was dressed and ready to go, Truman told his Secret Service entourage that it was time to head to Kansas City (MO). At Wallace’s campaign HQ, he was putting the final touches on a fairly antagonistic concession speech. When he was asked if he would congratulate Truman on his victory, Wallace said, “Under no circumstances will I congratulate that Son-of-a-Bitch”. At the Muehlebach, senior campaign officials were notified by the Secret Service that Truman was on his way there, and about 45 minutes later Truman arrived. It was only then at 6:45 am at the Muehlebach that Truman called Bess (who was in Independence) to tell her that he had won; tears of joy were streaming down the President’s face. Then Truman called Clark Clifford, who later said it was the most gratifying phone call he had ever received. Now the question among Truman’s campaign staffers was when would Dewey concede.
As Americans started to read their morning newspapers, the election wasn’t yet called due to the publishing deadline. At most, readers saw that Truman had a slight lead on Dewey in the popular vote and in the Electoral College. Some newspapers were not on top of things in terms of the results, such as the Atlanta Constitution claiming that Truman lost, and the Washington Post wanted to know how the nation could endure the next ten weeks until Dewey was inaugurated as President. Worse yet, newspapers from Chicago and Europe incorrectly reported that Dewey had won. The most infamous instance being the Chicago Daily Tribune’s (an aggressively anti-Truman newspaper) headline on the morning of 3 November 1948: “Dewey Defeats Truman”; GOP Sweep Indicated in State” - The Tribune was wrong on every major race: President, Governor, and US Senate. Below the headline, an article stated that the Republicans would return to the White House, and that Dewey had won the election by a huge margin. Over 150k copies of a first edition were released before panicked editors changed the headlines/articles for the second edition. During 2007, the Chicago Tribune admitted that its “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline was the most famous in the newspaper’s 150 year history.
As Americans started to read their morning newspapers, the election wasn’t yet called due to the publishing deadline. At most, readers saw that Truman had a slight lead on Dewey in the popular vote and in the Electoral College. Some newspapers were not on top of things in terms of the results, such as the Atlanta Constitution claiming that Truman lost, and the Washington Post wanted to know how the nation could endure the next ten weeks until Dewey was inaugurated as President. Worse yet, newspapers from Chicago and Europe incorrectly reported that Dewey had won. The most infamous instance being the Chicago Daily Tribune’s (an aggressively anti-Truman newspaper) headline on the morning of 3 November 1948: “Dewey Defeats Truman”; GOP Sweep Indicated in State” - The Tribune was wrong on every major race: President, Governor, and US Senate. Below the headline, an article stated that the Republicans would return to the White House, and that Dewey had won the election by a huge margin. Over 150k copies of a first edition were released before panicked editors changed the headlines/articles for the second edition. During 2007, the Chicago Tribune admitted that its “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline was the most famous in the newspaper’s 150 year history.
During the morning of 3 November 1948, Dewey released his concession statement, where he urged his fellow Americans to unite behind Truman (it was officially released at 10:16 am Eastern). Then the results from CA came in, where against every prediction Truman had prevailed (CA was the home state of Dewey’s VP running mate, Governor Earl Warren). After CA’s results and Dewey’s official concession, Truman posed for photographers, and reporters crowded around the President to get his first words after his victory had become official. All Truman said to the reporters was that he was very happy. What sweetened the victory for Truman was that he had carried his home state of MO, and that the Democrats had won a majority in the House of Representatives as well as the Senate; regaining a majority in both houses was as much of a surprise as Truman’s victory over Dewey. Truman would start his first full term as a duly-elected President with a Democratic majority in Congress.
Originally, Dewey was scheduled to appear in the ballroom of the Roosevelt Hotel at 9 pm on Election Night to bask in his victory, but he didn’t make an appearance until 1 pm the next day. One reporter asked Dewey what happened, and Dewey answered that he was just as surprised as everyone else in the room. Then Dewey was asked if his loss was due to errors in strategy or tactics, where Dewey responded that he had no regrets on that front. Another reporter asked what were the main reasons for his surprise defeat, and Dewey said it was too early to say, and that he needed a few days to figure out why. Among the last questions was if he was going to run for President a third time, and Dewey emphatically responded by answering “No”.
Originally, Dewey was scheduled to appear in the ballroom of the Roosevelt Hotel at 9 pm on Election Night to bask in his victory, but he didn’t make an appearance until 1 pm the next day. One reporter asked Dewey what happened, and Dewey answered that he was just as surprised as everyone else in the room. Then Dewey was asked if his loss was due to errors in strategy or tactics, where Dewey responded that he had no regrets on that front. Another reporter asked what were the main reasons for his surprise defeat, and Dewey said it was too early to say, and that he needed a few days to figure out why. Among the last questions was if he was going to run for President a third time, and Dewey emphatically responded by answering “No”.
Truman’s victory over Dewey was the greatest Presidential Election upset in US History to that point in time, and the press/media had to answer for its role in calling the race wrong from the get-go. The Denver Post admitted that it had failed to put a “. . . finger on the real pulse of America”, and a columnist from the Washington Post wrote that everybody was wrong except Truman. In its next edition dated 4 November 1948, Newsweek featured a smiling Truman on its cover, with the caption “Miracle Man”. Two days after the election, Truman boarded the Ferdinand Magellan where he left Independence (MO) for Washington, D.C. The train stopped at St. Louis, where someone gave the President a copy of the previous day’s Chicago Daily Tribune. Truman stood on the back platform of the Ferdinand Magellan in front of a huge crowd, and a newspaper photographer took a photo that became one of the most famous photos in US History. That photograph showed an absolutely joyful Truman holding up the Chicago Daily Tribune by the left side of his face, where the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” was clearly visible for all to see.
On 5 November 1948 in DC, Truman was greeted by 750k people, which was described by the historian David McCullogh as the largest and most enthusiastic gathering for a President in the history of the District of Columbia. Truman’s victory was so astounding that some Southern Conservative Democrats made a point of publicly shaking the President’s hand in front of that mass of humanity, already trying to make amends and curry favor after their vitriolic attacks against Truman for wanting Civil Rights legislation. It took Truman 22 minutes to go from the Ferdinand Magellan to his motorcade, where there were a mass of onlookers on the streets cheering the President as he went by. Once at the White House, from the North Portico via a microphone, Truman spoke to a massive crowd that stretched as far as the eye could see down Pennsylvania Avenue.
When Truman entered the White House, he was informed that the second floor (the residence area) was not safe. Truman knew he couldn’t stay in the White House, but he had hoped to do so for a short period of time; the victorious President had to stay elsewhere. Truman joked that even though he had won the election, he was getting kicked out of the White House anyway. The Trumans moved across the street to the Blair House, which was the official US Government home for visiting foreign dignitaries; it would be his temporary Presidential residence for quite some time.
On 5 November 1948 in DC, Truman was greeted by 750k people, which was described by the historian David McCullogh as the largest and most enthusiastic gathering for a President in the history of the District of Columbia. Truman’s victory was so astounding that some Southern Conservative Democrats made a point of publicly shaking the President’s hand in front of that mass of humanity, already trying to make amends and curry favor after their vitriolic attacks against Truman for wanting Civil Rights legislation. It took Truman 22 minutes to go from the Ferdinand Magellan to his motorcade, where there were a mass of onlookers on the streets cheering the President as he went by. Once at the White House, from the North Portico via a microphone, Truman spoke to a massive crowd that stretched as far as the eye could see down Pennsylvania Avenue.
When Truman entered the White House, he was informed that the second floor (the residence area) was not safe. Truman knew he couldn’t stay in the White House, but he had hoped to do so for a short period of time; the victorious President had to stay elsewhere. Truman joked that even though he had won the election, he was getting kicked out of the White House anyway. The Trumans moved across the street to the Blair House, which was the official US Government home for visiting foreign dignitaries; it would be his temporary Presidential residence for quite some time.
As the days passed, millions of Americans rightly questioned why the press and pollsters had been so wrong, and what actually happened that led to Truman’s upset win in the election. The Electoral College results had Truman with 303 (28 states), Dewey at 189 (16 states), and Thurmond at 39 (4 states: SC, LA, AL, & MS, with one “rebel” Electoral Vote from TN). In the popular vote, Truman had 24,105,810 while Dewey totaled 21,970.064 (Wallace had 1.56 million votes, about 13k less than Thurmond). According to the Republican National Committee, the Election of 1948 was the closest since 1916 (when Woodrow Wilson won re-election by one state). The RNC also concluded that only 29k votes across OH, IL, and CA were the difference in the election. Democrats picked up 75 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate, making it a Democratic 81st Congress. All believed that Truman and the 81st Congress would act in concert, but it wouldn’t take long to see that was an erroneous prediction (Truman would eventually refer to the 81st Congress as the “Eighty-Worst” Congress).
Convenient second-guessing in hindsight held that Dewey was the wrong candidate for the GOP in 1948, and that Senator Robert Taft (R; OH, “Mr. Republican”) would have defeated Truman. Congressman Richard Nixon believed that Harold Stassen would have defeated Truman, and later as a former (disgraced) President, he said the same thing in 1983. Prominent voices within the GOP and the Republican-friendly press complained that Dewey’s campaign was nothing more than excessive hubris, claiming that if had “come out swinging” and been specific on policies, he would have won in a landslide. While all those arguments and complaints were logical, they were of course impossible to prove. As far as Dewey was concerned, the difference was the “Farmer’s Vote” in the Midwest, where he was largely correct, in that enough of that voting bloc denied Dewey victories in OH and IL.
Truman’s strategy of focusing on the Republican (“Do Nothing”) 80th Congress changing the aspects of the Commodity Credit Corporation (e.g. “No Storage Bins For Farmers”) was key, in that with a bumper harvest in the Fall of 1948, farmers were crippled by a lack of government-subsidized storage. Republicans took it for granted that the “Farmer’s Vote” would forever be in their favor, but Truman carried the “Farming States” of OH, IL, WI, and IA. The African-American voting bloc also went Truman’s way, heavily so in OH and IL, and significantly so in CA (in particular in Los Angeles and Oakland; Truman only won CA by 18k votes).
Convenient second-guessing in hindsight held that Dewey was the wrong candidate for the GOP in 1948, and that Senator Robert Taft (R; OH, “Mr. Republican”) would have defeated Truman. Congressman Richard Nixon believed that Harold Stassen would have defeated Truman, and later as a former (disgraced) President, he said the same thing in 1983. Prominent voices within the GOP and the Republican-friendly press complained that Dewey’s campaign was nothing more than excessive hubris, claiming that if had “come out swinging” and been specific on policies, he would have won in a landslide. While all those arguments and complaints were logical, they were of course impossible to prove. As far as Dewey was concerned, the difference was the “Farmer’s Vote” in the Midwest, where he was largely correct, in that enough of that voting bloc denied Dewey victories in OH and IL.
Truman’s strategy of focusing on the Republican (“Do Nothing”) 80th Congress changing the aspects of the Commodity Credit Corporation (e.g. “No Storage Bins For Farmers”) was key, in that with a bumper harvest in the Fall of 1948, farmers were crippled by a lack of government-subsidized storage. Republicans took it for granted that the “Farmer’s Vote” would forever be in their favor, but Truman carried the “Farming States” of OH, IL, WI, and IA. The African-American voting bloc also went Truman’s way, heavily so in OH and IL, and significantly so in CA (in particular in Los Angeles and Oakland; Truman only won CA by 18k votes).
Running against conventional wisdom, Truman benefited from the many foreign crises with which he was dealing in 1948, especially with the Berlin Airlift. As the election drew near, the airlift was working past expectations, avoiding war with the USSR. Then there was Truman’s strategy of attacking the “Do Nothing” Republican 80th Congress during the campaign. Republicans in the 80th Congress were upset that they had passed the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan, and then were thrown under the bus by the President during the General Campaign. The truth was that in foreign policy, Truman and the Republicans were aligned, but not so in domestic issues, especially with the conservative wing of the GOP. Truman went a long way down the road to victory when during July 1948 he called the 80th Congress into a Special Session in order to put the political spotlight on the conservative Republican “Do-Nothingness”, as well as to show the “Great Schism” between the liberal and conservative wings of the party. Truman also greatly benefited from an economy that expanded all the way to the election.
Most Americans were happy with their incomes during the Fall of 1948, prices had started to fall, and unemployment was below 3%, unheard of for the Great Depression generation. Senator Robert Taft lamented that it was nearly impossible to vote out a President when the economy was prosperous. With the pollsters, the initial reaction of George Gallup was that a large number of those that participated in his polls didn’t vote, assuming that Dewey would win big without their participation. Elmo Roper, the pollster that stopped polling weeks before the election thinking Dewey had already won, flat-out admitted that he had been wrong, but he was frustrated because he didn’t know why he was wrong. One theory was that the pollsters erred in their sampling process, in that they didn’t pay enough attention to the less-approachable likely voter, e.g. working class and low-income voters. A more valid theory supported Gallup’s assertion that low voter turnout on the side of the Republicans was the difference. That theory had numbers in support, in that Dewey had about 40k fewer votes in 1948 than he did in 1944. Very few in the immediate postmortem of the Election of 1948 gave Truman the credit he deserved in terms of his campaign strategy and superhuman efforts in criss-crossing the nation to connect with voters - but Senator Arthur Vandenberg (R; MI) admitted that, “He did it all by himself. That’s the kind of courage the American people admire”.
Most Americans were happy with their incomes during the Fall of 1948, prices had started to fall, and unemployment was below 3%, unheard of for the Great Depression generation. Senator Robert Taft lamented that it was nearly impossible to vote out a President when the economy was prosperous. With the pollsters, the initial reaction of George Gallup was that a large number of those that participated in his polls didn’t vote, assuming that Dewey would win big without their participation. Elmo Roper, the pollster that stopped polling weeks before the election thinking Dewey had already won, flat-out admitted that he had been wrong, but he was frustrated because he didn’t know why he was wrong. One theory was that the pollsters erred in their sampling process, in that they didn’t pay enough attention to the less-approachable likely voter, e.g. working class and low-income voters. A more valid theory supported Gallup’s assertion that low voter turnout on the side of the Republicans was the difference. That theory had numbers in support, in that Dewey had about 40k fewer votes in 1948 than he did in 1944. Very few in the immediate postmortem of the Election of 1948 gave Truman the credit he deserved in terms of his campaign strategy and superhuman efforts in criss-crossing the nation to connect with voters - but Senator Arthur Vandenberg (R; MI) admitted that, “He did it all by himself. That’s the kind of courage the American people admire”.
Epilogue: Dewey, Wallace, Thurmond, and Truman . . .
