Source: Lawrence O'Donnell. Playing With Fire - The 1968 Election
and the Transformation of American Politics (2017)
and the Transformation of American Politics (2017)
Vice-President Hubert Humphrey wasn’t in the primaries, so the public stage for the Democrats was Senator Eugene McCarthy (MN) vs. Senator Robert Kennedy (NY). Humphrey was an expert at playing the “Inside Game”, adding delegates to his fold outside the primaries, where most of the unpledged delegates existed. However, Humphrey couldn’t totally ignore the primaries, in that if either McCarthy or RFK won big, then the “Inside Game” would look like Humphrey was cheating the Democratic process. So, Humphrey ran under aliases, using the “Favorite Son” method in which voters dissatisfied with either McCarthy or RFK could vote for that candidate, and then that “Favorite Son” would pledge his delegates to Humphrey.
RFK decided not to run in the Florida primary, knowing that Senator George Smathers, posing as the “Favorite Son” candidate for Humphrey, was far too popular in his home state, so the showdown in the Sunshine State was McCarthy vs. Smathers (Humphrey). RFK’s strategy in the primaries was simple: don’t lose. The strategy sounded simple, but it was complex to execute. RFK entered too late to get on the ballots in the Pennsylvania and Massachusetts primaries, the next two after Wisconsin; so it wasn’t until 7 May 1968 in Indiana that the “real” primary between McCarthy and RFK could occur. That being said, Indiana’s governor was the “Favorite Son” candidate on behalf of Humphrey, so it was conceivable that RFK could finish third.
RFK decided not to run in the Florida primary, knowing that Senator George Smathers, posing as the “Favorite Son” candidate for Humphrey, was far too popular in his home state, so the showdown in the Sunshine State was McCarthy vs. Smathers (Humphrey). RFK’s strategy in the primaries was simple: don’t lose. The strategy sounded simple, but it was complex to execute. RFK entered too late to get on the ballots in the Pennsylvania and Massachusetts primaries, the next two after Wisconsin; so it wasn’t until 7 May 1968 in Indiana that the “real” primary between McCarthy and RFK could occur. That being said, Indiana’s governor was the “Favorite Son” candidate on behalf of Humphrey, so it was conceivable that RFK could finish third.
RFK’s advantage over McCarthy and Humphrey was that he was popular on college campuses, in African-American ghettos, and with the white working class, and RFK was expert at telling each group what they wanted to hear. For an entire month, RFK ran a Presidential campaign in Indiana. RFK was keenly sensitive about his wealth and religion in Indiana, since the state had a traditional anti-Catholic sentiment, and RFK used humor in order to defuse any issues. That left the money spent on his campaign, and both RFK and his brother, Senator Edward Kennedy (MA) wanted to keep their wealth a non-issue. But Rose Kennedy, the matriarch (age 78) publicly stated that if one was wealthy, one should be able to spend money on a campaign; only a fool would not. That candor proved to be a refreshing tonic in Indiana.
McCarthy was feeling the pressure in that he had never faced an opponent like RFK, and it was the first time he had directly faced an opponent in a primary. McCarthy faced a whole family of Kennedys, since if RFK wasn’t in Indiana, then there was Teddy, or Rose, or Ethel (RFK’s wife). McCarthy discovered that everything he had heard about the Kennedy campaign/political machine was true. The results in Indiana were: RFK 42%, Indiana’s Governor 31%, and McCarthy 27%. McCarthy refused to admit an outright loss to RFK, even though he finished a distant third . . . but the results were ambiguous enough where McCarthy was able to keep going.
McCarthy was feeling the pressure in that he had never faced an opponent like RFK, and it was the first time he had directly faced an opponent in a primary. McCarthy faced a whole family of Kennedys, since if RFK wasn’t in Indiana, then there was Teddy, or Rose, or Ethel (RFK’s wife). McCarthy discovered that everything he had heard about the Kennedy campaign/political machine was true. The results in Indiana were: RFK 42%, Indiana’s Governor 31%, and McCarthy 27%. McCarthy refused to admit an outright loss to RFK, even though he finished a distant third . . . but the results were ambiguous enough where McCarthy was able to keep going.
The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on 14 May 1968, where RFK won with 53% to McCarthy’s 31% (Humphrey had 9% as a write-in candidate); McCarthy had to admit that RFK had won a significant victory in Nebraska. The next primaries were to be in Oregon and then California, and Oregon was a primary that RFK would have like to have avoided in that Oregon could ruin his “don’t lose” strategy. Since McCarthy refused to withdraw, RFK faced an uphill battle in Oregon.
Once a candidate announced, he was automatically on the Oregon primary ballot, and that candidate would have to completely withdraw as a candidate in order to remove his name from the state’s ballot. Oregon was one of the strongest anti-war states, and Oregon Senator Wayne Morse was the first Senator to oppose the war, and he was one of only two Senators that didn’t vote in favor of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. It was McCarthy, not RFK, that held the advantage in the Oregon Democratic primary. McCarthy came out on the attack, reminding voters of RFK’s early support of the Vietnam War. McCarthy also reminded voters of Attorney General RFK’s authorization of FBI wiretaps on Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., which wasn’t yet proven, but rumored to be true.
McCarthy, having accepted campaign money from the Humphrey campaign, publicly stated that he would support Humphrey if the Vice-President changed his stance on the Vietnam War, which was in part an effort to diminish RFK’s popularity in California. The McCarthy campaign staffers were in an uproar, since it appeared that McCarthy was getting ready to step aside for Humphrey.
Once a candidate announced, he was automatically on the Oregon primary ballot, and that candidate would have to completely withdraw as a candidate in order to remove his name from the state’s ballot. Oregon was one of the strongest anti-war states, and Oregon Senator Wayne Morse was the first Senator to oppose the war, and he was one of only two Senators that didn’t vote in favor of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. It was McCarthy, not RFK, that held the advantage in the Oregon Democratic primary. McCarthy came out on the attack, reminding voters of RFK’s early support of the Vietnam War. McCarthy also reminded voters of Attorney General RFK’s authorization of FBI wiretaps on Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., which wasn’t yet proven, but rumored to be true.
McCarthy, having accepted campaign money from the Humphrey campaign, publicly stated that he would support Humphrey if the Vice-President changed his stance on the Vietnam War, which was in part an effort to diminish RFK’s popularity in California. The McCarthy campaign staffers were in an uproar, since it appeared that McCarthy was getting ready to step aside for Humphrey.
In a speech at the Cow Palace in San Francisco a week before the California primary, McCarthy went on a blistering attack on both RFK and Humphrey and even indirectly at JFK concerning the US policies in Vietnam. McCarthy closed by saying he would carry his campaign to the end, and soon thereafter the results of the Oregon primary were announced. RFK became the first Kennedy to lose an election; the Kennedy family had celebrated 27 election night victories until Oregon’s primary, and RFK as simply stunned that he had lost to McCarthy (44% to 36%). Next was California’s primary with its 174 delegates, and it was McCarthy, not RFK, that had the momentum.
California was the primary that most closely resembled the general election in that it was a huge state with multiple mega-urban areas, and CA’s population was just as diverse as America’s. To win in CA meant a candidate had to know their audience, and compared to RFK, McCarthy had a steep learning curve to overcome. McCarthy discovered that other issues mattered in CA in addition to Vietnam, and McCarthy had moved to the left of RFK on domestic issues, which sounded ominous to California’s white Democratic voters.
California was the primary that most closely resembled the general election in that it was a huge state with multiple mega-urban areas, and CA’s population was just as diverse as America’s. To win in CA meant a candidate had to know their audience, and compared to RFK, McCarthy had a steep learning curve to overcome. McCarthy discovered that other issues mattered in CA in addition to Vietnam, and McCarthy had moved to the left of RFK on domestic issues, which sounded ominous to California’s white Democratic voters.
Political parties were invented in large part to eliminate chaos, but with LBJ out of the picture, chaos is what the Democratic leaders/bosses had. Political parties crave predictability, just like major corporations, but the Democrats in 1968, unlike any other time in the 1900s, suffered more-and-worse surprises that rocked the Establishment. That desire for predictability and the illusion of control explained why the Democratic leadership was the last to figure out what was really going on, believing that they had everything figured out.
Not only were the Democratic leaders shaken to their core when LBJ dropped out, with chaos replacing order, but then RFK entered the race, which represented a serious challenge to Humphrey. Yet most of those party leaders/bosses expected RFK to drop out when the going got rough, and simply wait for 1972. Then Humphrey announced that he wouldn’t actively campaign in the primaries, and it was tough enough for the Democratic leadership to be pumped up about Humphrey in any case. So, slowly, the leaders of the Democratic Party worked their way to at least accepting RFK as a serious candidate by doing nothing other than watching events unfold, and California would go a long way in showing RFK’s electability in their eyes.
While McCarthy had his own constellation of Hollywood stars campaigning for him, such as Paul Newman, Dustin Hoffman, and the musical duo of Simon and Garfunkel, McCarthy knew that he couldn’t compete with RFK in California, so he focused on college campuses, where he was a rock star. On the final weekend before the California primary, McCarthy and RFK debated on television. RFK had refused to debate McCarthy, but his loss in Oregon changed his mind. ABC’s Frank Reynolds moderated the debate, and there were not any fireworks, and neither candidate claimed victory.
Not only were the Democratic leaders shaken to their core when LBJ dropped out, with chaos replacing order, but then RFK entered the race, which represented a serious challenge to Humphrey. Yet most of those party leaders/bosses expected RFK to drop out when the going got rough, and simply wait for 1972. Then Humphrey announced that he wouldn’t actively campaign in the primaries, and it was tough enough for the Democratic leadership to be pumped up about Humphrey in any case. So, slowly, the leaders of the Democratic Party worked their way to at least accepting RFK as a serious candidate by doing nothing other than watching events unfold, and California would go a long way in showing RFK’s electability in their eyes.
While McCarthy had his own constellation of Hollywood stars campaigning for him, such as Paul Newman, Dustin Hoffman, and the musical duo of Simon and Garfunkel, McCarthy knew that he couldn’t compete with RFK in California, so he focused on college campuses, where he was a rock star. On the final weekend before the California primary, McCarthy and RFK debated on television. RFK had refused to debate McCarthy, but his loss in Oregon changed his mind. ABC’s Frank Reynolds moderated the debate, and there were not any fireworks, and neither candidate claimed victory.
RFK made national headlines when he stated that he would withdraw his candidacy for the nomination of President in the Democratic Party if he lost the California primary; RFK went on to say that he also would not accept the Vice-Presidency. RFK also knew that even if he won the CA primary, the Democratic leadership would almost certainly make sure that Humphrey was the nominee at the convention using the “Inside Game”. So, RFK acted like the California primary would be the last campaign he would ever conduct.
The last polls showed the race between McCarthy and RFK too close to call in CA, and most knew that the loser of the primary would be done. There was the additional potential political quagmire for both McCarthy and RFK if they lost in terms of endorsing the winner, or remaining in the race until the bitter end, which would tarnish the luster for which they stood.
Before midnight on election night, RFK knew that he had won the CA primary (RFK 46%, McCarthy 42%). McCarthy found out that RFK was giving his victory speech at the Ambassador Hotel before he had conceded, which was without a doubt a serious breach of political etiquette on the part of RFK. But RFK wanted his victory photos in the Eastern newspapers, and it was already 3 am on the East Coast. As RFK delivered his victory speech to his enthusiastic supporters, McCarthy was writing his concession speech, but he would never be able to give it.
Rosey Grier had been a friend of the Kennedys for years, and he had appointed himself to be RFK’s bodyguard for his campaign. Grier simply made it his mission to make sure that RFK wasn’t in any danger, and if he was, Rosey Grier would be in the way. Soon after RFK left the podium and went through the Ambassador Hotel’s kitchen to meet with reporters, 8 shots rang out. Grier had been guarding Ethel Kennedy (who was 8 months pregnant) as RFK left the podium. It was too late when Grier reached RFK, but in an ironic twist, it was Grier that made sure the assassin, Sirhan Sirhan, wasn’t torn apart by the crowd of onlookers.
The last polls showed the race between McCarthy and RFK too close to call in CA, and most knew that the loser of the primary would be done. There was the additional potential political quagmire for both McCarthy and RFK if they lost in terms of endorsing the winner, or remaining in the race until the bitter end, which would tarnish the luster for which they stood.
Before midnight on election night, RFK knew that he had won the CA primary (RFK 46%, McCarthy 42%). McCarthy found out that RFK was giving his victory speech at the Ambassador Hotel before he had conceded, which was without a doubt a serious breach of political etiquette on the part of RFK. But RFK wanted his victory photos in the Eastern newspapers, and it was already 3 am on the East Coast. As RFK delivered his victory speech to his enthusiastic supporters, McCarthy was writing his concession speech, but he would never be able to give it.
Rosey Grier had been a friend of the Kennedys for years, and he had appointed himself to be RFK’s bodyguard for his campaign. Grier simply made it his mission to make sure that RFK wasn’t in any danger, and if he was, Rosey Grier would be in the way. Soon after RFK left the podium and went through the Ambassador Hotel’s kitchen to meet with reporters, 8 shots rang out. Grier had been guarding Ethel Kennedy (who was 8 months pregnant) as RFK left the podium. It was too late when Grier reached RFK, but in an ironic twist, it was Grier that made sure the assassin, Sirhan Sirhan, wasn’t torn apart by the crowd of onlookers.